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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">I agree that in general ILL isn't great
for predicting future usage, partly because the number of requests
for any individual journal tends to be small and given to
fluctuation--we've actually had much better luck with judicious
use of turnaway data, though in all cases it's best to look at a
minimum of 2-3 years. At our undergraduate-masters institution,
we often see usage spikes that we strongly suspect are
attributable to one person's capstone project, so we like to look
at average usage over time.<br>
<br>
That said, there can still be useful information to be found in
the ILL stats. In our case we found a handful of titles that were
generating a disproportionate number of requests (and costing a
bundle in copyright clearance fees). Subscriptions to those
titles have been a runaway success, generating usage numbers many
times the number of requests. I would expect such finds to be
fairly rare, but it's wise to keep an eye on the ILL anyway
because it can surface emerging research needs.<br>
<br>
Regarding researching ILL vs subscription usage, I imagine it
would be difficult to compile a large enough data set. Cancelling
a big deal provides plenty of evidence of subsequent ILL usage
(with the caveat that retained perpetual access may result in very
small amounts inaccessible content in the first year), but
subscribing to titles en masse based on ILL evidence is probably
less common. In our case, we've used a back-of-the-envelope
estimate that 15% to 25% of subscription will translate to ILL,
depending on the journal and its primary users, and saw roughly
the inverse of this when we subscribed to our "frequent flyers."
That is, where we saw approximately 1 ILL request where there had
been 5 subscription uses, we now saw 5 subscription uses for every
1 ILL request we had before for those titles. However, we
cherry-picked the obvious winners for subscription and our data
set is miniscule, so I'd hesitate to extrapolate beyond cases
where ILL demand is above average and ongoing.<br>
<br>
In terms of turnaway data, we used it to inform purchase of
several backfile packages and saw that while it was not
necessarily predictive of usage for any one <i>individual </i>title,
<i>in aggregate</i> turnaways from backfile content translated
well to usage of that same content once subscribed. In this case,
we were able to study a large number of titles and multiple years
of data. Backfile usage may also be different from frontfile
usage. As turnaway data becomes more available with widespread
adoption of COUNTER 4, perhaps we'll see more research in this
direction.<br>
<br>
-- <br>
Nikki DeMoville<br>
Electronic Resources Coordinator<br>
Robert E. Kennedy Library<br>
California Polytechnic State University<br>
San Luis Obispo, CA 93407<br>
<br>
email: <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:ndemovil@calpoly.edu">ndemovil@calpoly.edu</a><br>
ph: 805-756-5780 fax: 805-756-7711 <br>
<br>
On 11/9/2015 11:10 AM, Harker, Karen wrote:<br>
</div>
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<div class="WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calisto
MT","serif";color:#44546A">This article lends
credence to my hunch that ILL data has limited validity as
indicator of future use. First, you need to look at the age
of the items requested at the time of the requests – are
they requesting older articles or the latest articles?
Secondly, you need to examine trends in usage over time –
has there been a steady direction of the number of
requests? Finally, examine the number of individuals making
these requests. Do all of the requests for this title come
from 1 or 2 people?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calisto
MT","serif";color:#44546A"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calisto
MT","serif";color:#44546A">I have not looked
in the literature, but it would be interesting to read any
studies that have attempted to ascertain the correlation of
number of ILL requests with usage. The research to answer
this question (does the number of ILL requests predict
unfettered usage of a resource) would require methodologies
that are rife with potential problems, but it would be
useful to see if it
<i>could</i> be answered.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calisto
MT","serif";color:#44546A"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calisto
MT","serif";color:#44546A">Karen Harker<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calisto
MT","serif";color:#44546A">Collection
Assessment Librarian<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calisto
MT","serif";color:#44546A">940-565-2688<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calisto
MT","serif";color:#44546A"><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://librariesareforuse.wordpress.com/"><span
style="color:blue">Libraries are for Use</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calisto
MT","serif";color:#44546A"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1
1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"">From:</span></b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"">
Eril-l [<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:eril-l-bounces@lists.eril-l.org">mailto:eril-l-bounces@lists.eril-l.org</a>]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Steve Oberg<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, November 09, 2015 1:04 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:eril-l@lists.eril-l.org">eril-l@lists.eril-l.org</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Eril-l] Is Breaking Up THAT Hard to
Do?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">To
add a bit more to my previous response, and also in
response to more recent comments regarding use of ILL
data….<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">One
of the things I’ve done is a preliminary literature review
on the topic of PPV and one of the articles I found
interesting was the following one:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">Hanson,
Michael, and Terese Heidenwolf. 2010. “Making the Right
Choices: Pay-per-View Use Data and Selection Decisions.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">College
& Research Libraries News</span></i><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">
71 (11): 586–88.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">The
authors began their exploration of PPV with the assumption
that their serials collection development was strong. This
was based on careful evaluation of subscriptions and
faculty involvement in decision-making year-to-year, along
with a thorough examination of ILL data. Their results,
however, led them to question their initial assumptions,
including the validity or relevance of ILL data.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">This
was written five years ago and perhaps longitudinal data
will be more enlightening. But as I mentioned, I found
their institution’s experience to be interesting.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">The
downloadable PowerPoint of the session to which I referred
at The Charleston Conference will eventually be linked
from the conference schedule, but you can get it here if
you’re interested: <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://librarylink.wheaton.edu/chs15">http://librarylink.wheaton.edu/chs15</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">Steve<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<div id="MAC_OUTLOOK_SIGNATURE">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black"><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.wheaton.edu/Academics/Faculty/O/Steve-Oberg"><span
style="color:purple">Steve Oberg</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">Assistant
Professor of Library Science<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">Electronic
Resources and Serials<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">Wheaton
College (IL)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">+1
(630) 752-5852<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
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<br>
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